Official data from Census Bureau, CBP, ICE, IRS, DHS, CBO • Updated Jul 2026
| Obama (8yr) | Trump 1.0 (4yr) | Biden (4yr) | Trump 2.0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Encounters | ~4.5M | ~3.0M | ~10.8M | ↓84% (USBP only)† |
| Interior Removals | ~1.8M | ~0.5M | ~0.6M | ~340K (MPI est.) |
| Net Stayed | ~-0.3M | ~0.9M | ~7.4M | TBD |
| Ratio In:Out | 0.9:1 | 2.8:1 | 13:1 | TBD |
| NIM (Census) | ~1.0M/yr | ~1.0M/yr | Peak 2.7M | 1.3M→321K proj |
| USBP Releases | Low | Low | 62K+/mo | 0/mo (7 mos) |
*Obama includes "returns" (voluntary). Interior-only: Obama ~1.5-2M | Trump ~0.5M | Biden ~0.15-0.6M. Trump 2.0 ICE est. from MPI FY2025.
†The first three encounter columns are multi-year totals on a total (USBP + OFO) basis; the Trump 2.0 cell is the Border Patrol component only, so it is the narrower quantity. The 84% is Border Patrol apprehensions at the Southwest border, FY2025 (237,538) against FY2024 (1,530,523) — a fall of 84.5% on that basis. On the total basis, now that CBP's SBO export supplies the OFO component for both years, FY2025 (443,671) against FY2024 (2,135,005) is a fall of 79.2% — a real difference, which is why the two are labelled separately rather than mixed.
Two different measures — read them separately. Total encounters = Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry plus Office of Field Operations (OFO) inadmissibles at ports of entry. USBP encounters counts the Border Patrol component only, and is therefore always the smaller of the two. Comparing a USBP bar to a total bar is not like-for-like.
The total series now runs to FY2026. It previously stopped at FY2024, on the understanding that CBP's monthly releases had dropped the OFO component. CBP's own SBO encounters export does carry it: 206,133 OFO inadmissibles in FY2025 and 34,880 so far in FY2026, giving totals of 443,671 and 115,762. The export reproduces the already-plotted FY2023 and FY2024 totals to within OHSS's rounding, so these are the same measure continued rather than a second series spliced on.
Sources: FY2017–FY2024 totals and FY2017–FY2023 USBP — DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics, KHSM CBP Encounters (ohss.dhs.gov/khsm/cbp-encounters), Southwest Land Border series, rounded by OHSS to the nearest 10; last updated Feb 2025 and currently ending at FY2024. FY2024–FY2026 USBP — CBP monthly tables, summed (FY2025, FY2026). The two sources agree where they overlap: OHSS puts FY2024 USBP at 1,530,520, CBP's own months sum to 1,530,523.
Caveats: FY2020–FY2023 encounters include Title 42 expulsions (Mar 2020–May 2023); a person expelled and re-crossing was counted each time, which inflates those years relative to FY2024 onward. FY2025 = full year (Oct 2024–Sep 2025). FY2026* = Oct 2025–Jul 2026 only, 10 of 12 months, so its bar is a partial year and not comparable to the full years beside it.
Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026). SF Fed Economic Letter (Nov 2025). 2026 projection based on Census methodology + current enforcement trends.
Immigration is the only reason MA population grew. Now both trends are reversing.
*Census dates its estimates from 1 April 2020, so the first row covers Apr 2020–Jun 2021 and carries the 2020 stub (−36,863) alongside the 2020–21 year (−9,433). Domestic column: US Census Bureau population estimates, vintage 2025.
| Year | Domestic | International | Natural | Net Total | Shelter Cost | Families in EA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21* | -46,296 | +1,762 | +6,034 | -38,500 | — | ~2,800 |
| 2021-22 | -47,954 | +72,892 | +5,200 | +30,138 | ~$60M | ~3,500 |
| 2022-23 | -35,360 | +74,610 | +4,800 | +44,050 | ~$375M | ~7,500 |
| 2023-24 | -19,195 | +90,217 | +4,500 | +75,522 | $894M | ~7,600 peak |
| 2024-25 | -33,340 | +56,600 | +4,200 | +27,460 | $978M | ↓2,047 |
| TOTAL | -182,145 | +296,081 | +24,734 | +138,670 | $2.31B | — |
Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025, IRS SOI Migration Data
| Scenario | Annual Δ | 2030 Pop | 9th Seat? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status Quo | +40K | 7.38M | ✅ Safe |
| Immigration Halved | +6K | 7.17M | ✅ Safe |
| Immigration Stops | -33K | 6.94M | ✅ Safe |
| No Immig + Peak Exodus | -51K | 6.83M | ⚠️ Close |
| Deport + No Immig | -34K | 6.63M | ❌ Loses |
| Deport All + Exodus | -52K | 6.43M | ❌ Loses |
| City | Change |
|---|---|
| Revere | +11pp |
| Boxborough | +9pp |
| Marlborough | +8pp |
| Waltham | +7pp |
| Framingham | +6pp |
| Reform | Change |
|---|---|
| Max Stay | 9mo → 6 months |
| Cap | Soft 7,500 → Hard 4,000 |
| Eligibility | Now requires MA residency + lawful status |
| Background | CORI checks mandatory |
| Hotels | Phased out by mid-2025 |
| Cost/Family | $3,496/wk → $1,182/wk |
FY2025 is the anomaly, not FY2026. Encounters at Massachusetts ports fell 53% in FY2025, then rose 88% in FY2026 — which recovers about 78% of the ground lost, leaving them 12% below FY2024 and 15% below FY2023. Quoting the FY25→FY26 jump on its own makes a rebound off a collapsed base look like growth. Every bar is the same ten months, Oct–Jul, so none of this is the partial year talking.
“Other” is CBP's own residual category, not a country — it is the largest single bar and is left labelled as CBP publishes it.
FMUA = family-unit adults. UAC = unaccompanied children. 2,629 of 2,836 encounters were single adults.
Source: CBP Nationwide Encounters, state breakdown (nationwide-encounters-fy23-fy26-jul-state.csv), FY2023–FY2026 through July. Counts are encounters, not people: one person encountered twice counts twice.
Source: Suffolk University/Boston Globe, June 16, 2026 (n=500)
Source: Census ACS State-to-State Migration, 2024. Net domestic: −30,387. Only international migration (+66,158) keeps MA positive.
| State | Income Tax | Sales Tax | Burden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 9% (flat+surtax) | 6.25% | ■ High |
| Florida | 0% | 6% | ■ Low |
| New Hampshire | 0% | 0% | ■ Low |
| Texas | 0% | 6.25% | ■ Low |
| N. Carolina | 4.5% | 4.75% | ■ Medium |
| Claim | Verdict |
|---|---|
| $14.5T cumulative surplus | ⚠️ Lumps legal+illegal |
| 81% from college grads | ✅ Verified (NASEM) |
| 44% less likely incarcerated | ✅ Verified (Cato/BJS) |
| Every year net positive | ⚠️ Federal only |
| Noncitizens: $6.3T of $14.5T | ✅ Verified |
| Doesn't separate legal/illegal | ❌ Deliberate omission |
| Reform | Old Rule | New Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Max Stay | 9 months + extensions | 6 months, hardship only |
| Capacity Cap | Soft 7,500 | Hard 4,000 (Dec 2025–Dec 2026) |
| Eligibility | Presumptive (verify later) | Verify during application |
| Requirements | None | MA residency + lawful status + CORI |
| Hotels/Motels | ~50% of placements | Phased out by mid-2025 |
| Procurement | Direct contracts | Competitive bidding required |
| Income Cap | None | >200% FPL for 3+ months = ineligible |
Every figure on this page is listed with its source in the Immigration section of the method.